Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1382

   Mesoscale Discussion 1382
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0214 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

   Areas affected...Northeast Minnesota...including the Arrowhead

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414...

   Valid 291914Z - 292115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and large hail is expected
   to continue across remaining valid portions of Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch #414. The greatest potential for a tornado or two exists with
   a supercell on the southern end of the bowing MCS in the vicinity of
   the warm front.

   DISCUSSION...As of 19Z, KDLH radar data indicated a well-defined bow
   echo across St. Louis County with a trailing supercell over Aitkin
   County. Movement of the bow echo was to the northeast at 50 kt.
   Sporadic wind damage reports and marginally severe wind gusts have
   occurred over the past hour, despite earlier volumetric radar data
   sampling an 80+ kt rear-inflow jet (RIJ). Relatively cool and stable
   near-ground conditions are likely inhibiting the majority of
   higher-momentum flow in the RIJ from reaching the surface, except
   where locally intense downbursts are able to penetrate the stable
   layer. Expect that trend to continue with the bow echo as the
   low-level stability will likely be maintained by onshore flow from
   off Lake Superior.

   Meanwhile, the supercell over Aitkin County recently produced hail
   up to 1.5 inches, and its likely large hail potential will continue
   with that storm as it continues east along the immediate cool side
   of the warm front. That threat is expected to spread east into far
   northwest WI, where the watch has been locally extended. In addition
   to the hail threat, the potential exists for a tornado or two owing
   to the proximity of the warm front where low-level shear is
   maximized. That threat is conditional on the supercell being firmly
   rooted with the boundary layer.

   ..Mead.. 06/29/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...

   LAT...LON   46269199 46229268 46279356 46999399 47669391 48209324
               48259169 48078990 47758969 46799063 46369116 46269199 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN