Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1378

   Mesoscale Discussion 1378
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0546 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

   Areas affected...North-central Missouri into south-central and
   southeast Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 222246Z - 230045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong/severe storms may occur late this afternoon
   into the evening. Damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail
   are the main threats. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible should
   convective trends warrant.

   DISCUSSION...Convective showers have been increasing along the cold
   front and within weak convergence bands ahead of the front in
   southern Iowa and northern Missouri. With the primary shortwave
   trough farther to the the north, forcing for ascent will be more
   nebulous. That said, storm coverage is not certain late this
   afternoon into the evening. Temperatures have risen into the upper
   80s/low 90s F and the airmass is quite moist (low 70s F dewpoints).
   MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and effective shear of around 35 kts will
   be sufficient for organized strong to severe storms. Damaging winds
   will be the main threat with isolated marginally severe hail
   possible as well. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible late this
   afternoon, but issuance will depend on convective coverage.

   ..Wendt/Gleason.. 06/22/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   41769289 41509207 40839178 40119216 39759260 39619362
               39969442 40549469 40639471 41549375 41769289