Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1377

   Mesoscale Discussion 1377
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0525 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

   Areas affected...Northeastern Iowa into southwestern Wisconsin

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 446...

   Valid 222225Z - 230000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 446 continues.

   SUMMARY...Southwestern Wisconsin will see a locally greater risk for
   a tornado over the next 1-2 hours. Convection along the warm front
   may eventually grow upscale later this afternoon into the evening.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have generally struggled to intensify,
   particularly those away from the surface low/warm front. The 18Z
   observed DVN sounding showed very poor mid-level lapse rates which
   are likely contributing to these convective trends. Still, a couple
   of discrete storms in northeastern Iowa and far southwestern
   Wisconsin have shown at least weak low-level rotation at times.
   These storms are moving into an area where surface winds are
   slightly more backed in southwestern Wisconsin. Should these storms
   maintain their intensity, they would pose a locally greater tornado
   risk over the next 1-2 hours.

   Storms along the warm front could also pose some risk for a tornado,
   though storm coverage is such that destructive interference may
   mitigate any higher potential. This activity may form a more
   organized cold pool and begin to push southeastward with time. This
   scenario has support from several CAMs. Damaging winds would be the
   main threat with this more linear activity.

   ..Wendt.. 06/22/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   43269228 43469132 43298997 43008936 42588923 42009051
               41869136 42029198 42559260 42849273 43269228