Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1377

   Mesoscale Discussion 1377
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0906 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

   Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota...Southeast North
   Dakota...and West-central Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413...

   Valid 291406Z - 291600Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds with gusts of 60-80 mph,
   large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes is expected to
   continue with ongoing bow echo.

   DISCUSSION...As of 14Z, the KABR radar indicated a compact but
   intense bow echo over Marshall, Day, and Roberts Counties in
   northeast SD, moving northeast at 45 kt. A couple of tornadoes have
   recently been reported with meso-vortices forming near the apex of
   the bow. Mesoanalysis places the convective system very near a warm
   front lifting north through the region, where a corridor of enhanced
   low-level shear likely resides. Latest short-term model guidance
   suggests that the bow echo will continue northeast into
   west-central/northwest MN this morning with extrapolation of the
   current motion taking it to the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   #413 between 1530 and 16Z (10:30-11:00 AM CDT).

   Latest mesoanalysis indicates a reservoir of moderate to strong
   instability (MLCAPE of 2000-4000 J/kg) in the vicinity of and
   immediately downstream of the bow echo, which will continue to fuel
   vigorous up/downdrafts with an attendant threat for severe wind
   gusts in the 60-80 mph range and large hail up to golf-ball size.
   Tornado potential will be contingent on the warm front lifting north
   at a similar speed of the bow echo, allowing it to reside within a
   zone of stronger low-level shear.

   ..Mead.. 06/29/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45479832 46339775 47069732 47339659 47169571 46809552
               46199562 45499661 45179727 45119760 45109811 45479832 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN