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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1376

Mesoscale Discussion 1376
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1376
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Montana into far western North
   Dakota and extreme northwestern South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 222054Z - 222300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail/wind gusts are possible
   this afternoon with the stronger storms. The severe threat should
   remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...The passage of a 500 mb vort max along the U.S./Canada
   border is supporting convective initiation across portions of
   eastern Montana. Latest visible satellite imagery, MRMS mosaic radar
   and NLDN lightning data, all indicate some increase in thunderstorm
   coverage and intensity, with some indications of hail occurring in
   Musselshell County, MT. The stronger flow aloft with the passing 500
   mb vort max is contributing to straight, elongated hodographs and
   accompanying 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. Coinciding this axis
   of shear are 8.5+ C/km 0-3km lapse rates, which may support a couple
   of stronger thunderstorms this afternoon. Multicells and transient
   supercells would be the most likely storm modes with the
   longest-lived storms, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail
   threat. Given the expected sparse nature of the severe wind/hail, a
   WW issuance is not anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/22/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   46620881 47050761 47570467 47290258 46570237 45930299
               45610451 45400591 45410708 45780817 46620881 

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