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Mesoscale Discussion 1376 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1376 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Montana into far western North Dakota and extreme northwestern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222054Z - 222300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail/wind gusts are possible this afternoon with the stronger storms. The severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...The passage of a 500 mb vort max along the U.S./Canada border is supporting convective initiation across portions of eastern Montana. Latest visible satellite imagery, MRMS mosaic radar and NLDN lightning data, all indicate some increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity, with some indications of hail occurring in Musselshell County, MT. The stronger flow aloft with the passing 500 mb vort max is contributing to straight, elongated hodographs and accompanying 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. Coinciding this axis of shear are 8.5+ C/km 0-3km lapse rates, which may support a couple of stronger thunderstorms this afternoon. Multicells and transient supercells would be the most likely storm modes with the longest-lived storms, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat. Given the expected sparse nature of the severe wind/hail, a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 46620881 47050761 47570467 47290258 46570237 45930299 45610451 45400591 45410708 45780817 46620881 |
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