Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1375

   Mesoscale Discussion 1375
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0332 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Utah into western Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 222032Z - 222300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for isolated severe wind and hail is increasing
   across portions of eastern UT into western CO. A WW issuance is not
   currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in number and intensity
   across eastern UT/western CO along the entrance region of a 300 mb
   jet streak, where a well-mixed boundary layer is now in place.
   Latest MRMS-MESH radar data suggests some of the stronger storms may
   already be producing at least marginally severe (i.e. 1 inch
   diameter) hail. Surface temperatures approaching the upper 80s F
   beneath 9 C/km tropospheric lapse rates is contributing to 500-1000
   J/kg MLCAPE. RAP forecast soundings depict hodographs with modest
   low-level curvature but considerable mid-level elongation, which
   will promote continued multicell/supercell development through the
   afternoon. The strongest storms will be accompanied by some severe
   wind/hail threat. However, the severe threat should remain isolated,
   and a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/22/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...

   LAT...LON   37901173 40281098 40861015 40900904 40550753 39370717
               38010711 37390795 37130931 37091013 37231119 37901173