Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1374

   Mesoscale Discussion 1374
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0320 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

   Areas affected...north-central Lower MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 222020Z - 222115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for a brief tornado and/or localized 50-65
   mph gust will focus in a mesoscale area northwest of Saginaw Bay
   over the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...A supercell has developed on the southern end of a band
   of low-topped convection moving across northern Lower MI.  Lightning
   was recently observed in the past 15 minutes as the storm moves east
   along a west-east oriented stationary front.  Along and south of the
   boundary, surface dewpoints are in the 70-72 deg F range.  Ample
   deep-layer shear and adequate buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) will
   seemingly support a continuation and maintenance of this storm as it
   moves east.  An isolated risk for a 50-65 mph gust and perhaps a
   brief tornado are possible with this storm.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 06/22/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...

   LAT...LON   44188438 44218367 44108352 43988361 43908374 43958446
               44088450 44188438