Mesoscale Discussion 1371 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Areas affected...parts of north central North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 290321Z - 290515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorm activity may continue to pose a risk for severe hail, and perhaps a strong downburst before weakening, while overspreading the region through Midnight-2 AM CDT. DISCUSSION...While the warmest elevated mixed-layer air has been suppressed a bit farther southeastward through the middle Missouri Valley, Rapid Refresh output suggests that temperatures around the 700 mb level remain as warm as 10+ C along a corridor northeast of the Black Hills through northeastern North Dakota. Associated inhibition, coupled with the onset of boundary-layer cooling, has contributed to rapid dissipation of earlier isolated storms within this regime. However, isolated strong thunderstorm development has persisted, and even increased and intensified a bit, within the mid-level thermal gradient to the northwest of the stronger capping. This appears aided by forcing associated with weak warm advection accompanying a subtle wave, which is forecast to continue slowly migrating toward the international border area to the northwest of Devils Lake through 05-07Z. As it does, the risk for severe hail may persist at least a couple more hours. Thermodynamic dynamic profiles characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates may also support a strong downburst, before activity weakens and/or spreads across the international border. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 06/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 48860017 48649914 47660040 47440095 47600142 48860017 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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