Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1368

   Mesoscale Discussion 1368
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0220 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

   Areas affected...the Texas Panhandle into the Permian Basin and far
   Southeast New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 281920Z - 282145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts appear possible this afternoon
   with pulse-type thunderstorms. The limited nature of the threat is
   expected to preclude a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite shows a growing cumulus field
   across the TX South Plains, west-southwest of Lubbock. That
   convection appears to be developing along the western edge of
   stronger capping and within a deeply mixed boundary layer with
   surface temperatures of around 100 F. Stronger instability resides
   to the east with objective analysis indicating MLCAPE as high as
   1500-2500 J/kg from the eastern TX Panhandle into the Low Rolling
   Plains.

   Continued daytime heating should allow for further convective
   inhibition reduction from the west, which in turn will allow the
   deepening convection to spread east into a progressively more
   unstable environment. Vertical shear is expected to remain
   relatively weak, which should limit the potential for organized
   storm modes. Nonetheless, the presence of a moderately unstable
   environment featuring a relatively deep, inverted-v boundary layer
   will be supportive of isolated severe wind gusts with pulse-type
   storms.

   ..Mead/Guyer.. 06/28/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33310325 34260276 35280213 36500107 36470042 35980008
               33810125 32660200 32100262 32710342 33310325 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH