Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1368

   Mesoscale Discussion 1368
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0627 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

   Areas affected...Western into central Montana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442...

   Valid 212327Z - 220100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The strongest convection will continue southeastward this
   evening. Additional development may occur. Large hail and isolated
   severe winds are the main hazards.

   DISCUSSION...A few widely scattered supercells are moving slowly
   southeastward into parts of central Montana. This motion is
   generally expected to continue into the evening, as this is where
   the moisture axis is situated. However, some early convection has
   left some outflow (cooler/modestly drier) that is evident in surface
   observations. It is unclear how this will impact the ongoing
   strong/severe storms as they encounter this mesoscale environment.
   Additional storms may develop within the terrain or perhaps along
   the southern edge of the outflow. It also appears possible that a
   storm or two could move southeastward out of Alberta. In general,
   large hail (conditionally up to 2 inches with a mature supercell)
   and isolated strong/severe gusts are the main threats into the
   evening.

   ..Wendt.. 06/21/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   47651240 48211276 48861316 49011287 49011105 48460940
               47990849 46790767 46150848 46141001 47161204 47651240