Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1361

   Mesoscale Discussion 1361
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0846 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

   Areas affected...parts of central South Dakota

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 406...

   Valid 280146Z - 280345Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 406 continues.

   SUMMARY...A cluster of storms may continue to pose a risk for strong
   to severe wind gusts across much of central South Dakota through
   10-11 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent associated with weak short wave
   troughing progressing through 30-40 kt difluent, southwesterly flow
   around 500 mb may maintain northeastward progression of an ongoing
   cluster of storms across much of central South Dakota, despite
   increasing inhibition for moist boundary-layer parcels.  The
   corridor of stronger potential instability (from which updraft
   inflow is emanating) is narrow, but Rapid Refresh suggests it may be
   developing slowly eastward.  It still probably will be overtaken by
   the convective outflow somewhere across central into eastern South
   Dakota, leading to at least gradual weakening of convection. 
   However, until then, convection will probably continue to pose a
   risk for strong to severe wind gusts.

   ..Kerr.. 06/28/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44670145 45810009 45479870 43489945 42920061 43110169
               43990117 44670145 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN