Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 136

   Mesoscale Discussion 0136
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0833 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southern Missouri and northern Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11...

   Valid 050233Z - 050400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Increasing mid-level ascent will overspread portions of
   southern Missouri and northern Arkansas over the next 1-2 hours
   ahead of an approaching shortwave mid-level trough. This upper-level
   forcing coupled with a strengthening southerly low-level jet could
   support a continuing severe weather threat over the next few hours,
   with hail/wind the primary hazards. WW0011 will be locally extended
   across portions of northern Arkansas.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection across eastern Oklahoma and
   northwestern Arkansas will progress northeastward over the next 1-2
   hours within a warm sector characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
   and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. Increased low-level hodograph
   curvature owing to a strengthening, southerly low-level jet (as
   sampled by regional VWPs) and steep mid-level lapse rates (around 7
   C/km) could support a continuing threat for large hail and perhaps a
   tornado or two. With time, expected upscale growth of this
   convection into one or more linear segments may foster an increasing
   threat for damaging wind gusts. Simultaneously, the strengthening
   low-level jet will support increasing convective coverage along and
   north of a surface frontal boundary currently analyzed across
   southern Missouri. MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg amidst steep mid-level
   lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km and effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts may
   support a continuing threat for large hail north of this boundary.
   Given the potential for the continuing severe threat, WW0011 will be
   locally extended across portions of northern Arkansas.

   ..Chalmers/Lyons/Hart.. 03/05/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35209323 35339395 35769439 36239443 36719448 37019424
               37429346 37669261 37839166 37789113 37599073 37339052
               37069054 36599098 36129150 35749203 35379270 35209323 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN