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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1357

Mesoscale Discussion 1357
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1357
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0146 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southern Vermont...southern New
   Hampshire...Massachusetts...Connecticut...Rhode Island

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 211846Z - 212015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A locally higher damaging gust threat exists across
   portions of New England in advance of clustering thunderstorm cells.
   Conditions will be monitored for the need of a WW issuance pending
   continued favorable trends for more damaging winds.

   DISCUSSION...Pulse cells and smaller multicellular clusters are
   attempting to organize into a loosely organized MCS in far eastern
   NY. Given the potential for cold pool mergers, preceded by steep
   low-level lapse rates, it is possible that a more organized damaging
   gust threat could materialize over the next few hours. 25-35 kts of
   effective bulk shear (whose vectors are oriented roughly normal to
   the long-axis of the potential MCS) may also contribute to the
   organization of an efficient damaging-gust-producing thunderstorm
   complex. Should further convective organization occur, a WW issuance
   eventually may be needed.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/21/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42697381 43037361 43177310 43167119 42617080 42067076
               41597131 41447211 41507286 41607331 42067378 42697381 

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