Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1353

   Mesoscale Discussion 1353
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0336 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern Missouri...southern
   Illinois...western Kentucky...and northern Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403...

   Valid 272036Z - 272200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Clusters of storms have produced a couple damaging gusts
   across portions of southeastern Missouri, southern Illinois, western
   Kentucky, and northern Tennessee. Additional redevelopment is
   possible to the west.

   DISCUSSION...An MCV is tracking eastward across portions of the
   mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon, and a compact but relatively
   intense mid-level jet streak of 50+ kts is being sampled by the KPAH
   and KHPX VWPs. This is contributing to relatively strong bulk shear
   of 30-40 kts across the region, enough for occasional mini-supercell
   structures to appear on WSR-88Ds. Given the relatively strong
   mid-level flow a few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two may
   continue to occur with this activity.

   Additional activity may develop across portions of southern Missouri
   in association with another MCV and move into the western portions
   of Watch 403 later this afternoon and evening. Latest HRRR and RRFS
   runs are split on whether this actually occurs, and visible
   satellite in the area shows widespread cloud cover with cumulus
   development not looking particularly imminent. However, should
   additional development occur, the environment will continue to be
   favorable for additional damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or
   two.

   ..Supinie/Guyer.. 06/27/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38218917 38508797 38258672 37848598 37268529 36448523
               36018641 36158779 36408921 36879006 37609020 38028967
               38218917 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH