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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1352

Mesoscale Discussion 1352
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1352
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1038 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

   Areas affected...southern New England and the Northeast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 211538Z - 211745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered, generally pulse-type thunderstorms will likely
   develop through this afternoon across parts of the Northeast into
   southern New England. Sporadic downbursts capable of strong gusts
   from 45-60 mph should yield localized tree damage. The relatively
   disorganized/marginal nature of the threat should preclude severe
   thunderstorm watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorm development is underway, mainly
   across parts of NY, along/ahead of a southward-sagging
   west/east-oriented cold front. Additional storms will likely develop
   southward over the higher terrain of central PA and eastward across
   southern New England over the next few hours. The overall
   kinematic/thermodynamic environment appears to be more subdued
   relative to yesterday in eastern NY and New England. Modest
   mid-level westerlies are generally aligned with the frontal
   orientation and predominately to the cool side of the boundary. Weak
   deep-layer shear will dominate the warm-moist sector to the south.
   With weaker mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE should largely range from
   1500-2000 J/kg. While small to perhaps marginally severe hail around
   1 inch diameter is possible, the predominant threat should be from
   localized strong gusts in downbursts.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 06/21/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   43547563 43467438 43167210 42797096 42207106 41847095
               41357173 40957341 40987574 40717686 39917830 39897912
               40307912 42657736 43547563 

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