Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1352

   Mesoscale Discussion 1352
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1038 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

   Areas affected...southern New England and the Northeast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 211538Z - 211745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered, generally pulse-type thunderstorms will likely
   develop through this afternoon across parts of the Northeast into
   southern New England. Sporadic downbursts capable of strong gusts
   from 45-60 mph should yield localized tree damage. The relatively
   disorganized/marginal nature of the threat should preclude severe
   thunderstorm watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorm development is underway, mainly
   across parts of NY, along/ahead of a southward-sagging
   west/east-oriented cold front. Additional storms will likely develop
   southward over the higher terrain of central PA and eastward across
   southern New England over the next few hours. The overall
   kinematic/thermodynamic environment appears to be more subdued
   relative to yesterday in eastern NY and New England. Modest
   mid-level westerlies are generally aligned with the frontal
   orientation and predominately to the cool side of the boundary. Weak
   deep-layer shear will dominate the warm-moist sector to the south.
   With weaker mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE should largely range from
   1500-2000 J/kg. While small to perhaps marginally severe hail around
   1 inch diameter is possible, the predominant threat should be from
   localized strong gusts in downbursts.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 06/21/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...
   CTP...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   43547563 43467438 43167210 42797096 42207106 41847095
               41357173 40957341 40987574 40717686 39917830 39897912
               40307912 42657736 43547563