Mesoscale Discussion 1351 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Areas affected...northeastern Nebraska...southeastern South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440... Valid 210437Z - 210600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440 continues. SUMMARY...While thunderstorm development is likely to continue across the region overnight, the risk for severe weather is expected to remain limited and a new severe weather watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...With the approach of the weakening upstream cluster of storms and associated cold pool, the persistent, quasi-stationary supercell near O'Neill has finally accelerated northward and weakened to the north of the surface warm front. Stronger lingering convection within the cluster has been aided by lift along the leading edge of the eastward advancing cold pool, near where it intersects the warm front. However, it appears that this activity will weaken further as it progresses eastward, with renewed convective development possible in its wake, as the nose of a 30-40 kt southerly 850 mb jet remains focused near the O'Neill vicinity. In the presence of modest shear, the newer convective development may grow upscale and organize above the trailing convective outflow overnight. However, with updraft inflow likely to be characterized by rather modest to weak instability, the risk for convection to produce severe hail and wind seems likely to remain low. ..Kerr.. 06/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF... LAT...LON 43309900 43719740 43479615 42419614 42389724 42179877 42539883 42939888 43309900