US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1351

   Mesoscale Discussion 1351
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1137 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

   Areas affected...northeastern Nebraska...southeastern South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440...

   Valid 210437Z - 210600Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440

   SUMMARY...While thunderstorm development is likely to continue
   across the region overnight, the risk for severe weather is expected
   to remain limited and a new severe weather watch is not currently

   DISCUSSION...With the approach of the weakening upstream cluster of
   storms and associated cold pool, the persistent, quasi-stationary
   supercell near O'Neill has finally accelerated northward and
   weakened to the north of the surface warm front.  Stronger lingering
   convection within the cluster has been aided by lift along the
   leading edge of the eastward advancing cold pool, near where it
   intersects the warm front.  However, it appears that this activity
   will weaken further as it progresses eastward, with renewed
   convective development possible in its wake, as the nose of a 30-40
   kt southerly 850 mb jet remains focused near the O'Neill vicinity. 
   In the presence of modest shear, the newer convective development
   may grow upscale and organize above the trailing convective outflow
   overnight.  However, with updraft inflow likely to be characterized
   by rather modest to weak instability, the risk for convection to
   produce severe hail and wind seems likely to remain low.

   ..Kerr.. 06/21/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   43309900 43719740 43479615 42419614 42389724 42179877
               42539883 42939888 43309900 

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