Mesoscale Discussion 0135 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026 Areas affected...North TX into eastern OK and western AR Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 12... Valid 050043Z - 050245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 12 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado will continue through mid evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing from north TX into eastern OK early this evening, with occasional storm organization and midlevel rotation noted with cells near the DFW Metroplex, and also in the vicinity of a cold front between McAlester, OK and Fort Smith, AR. Effective shear of 30-40 kt and MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg (as sampled by the 00Z FWD sounding) will continue to support occasional supercells across the region this evening, with an increasing coverage of storms expected in response to an approaching midlevel shortwave trough and modest strengthening of the low-level jet. Cell interactions may tend to limit the longevity of any particular cell, though slow storm motions and a tendency for backbuilding near a composite outflow across north TX may continue to support a nearly stationary storm cluster near the eastern DFW Metroplex. Farther north, occasional splitting supercells may continue as convection spreads from southeast OK into western AR. Some hail and localized damaging-wind threat will continue to accompany any sustained supercells this evening. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out, especially if any surface-based supercells can persist later into the evening, when a modest strengthening of low-level shear/SRH is expected. However, there may continue to be a tendency for storms to be undercut by outflow or the slow-moving cold front. ..Dean.. 03/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 32499605 32199670 31579792 31819877 34209661 35609542 36119472 36299433 36109357 34859396 33789470 32909565 32499605 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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