Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1347

   Mesoscale Discussion 1347
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1026 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

   Areas affected...northern Utah...southeast Idaho...and western
   Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271526Z - 271800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for a few severe storms capable of strong
   wind gusts and large hail is expected to increase by late morning
   into early afternoon. The current expectation is that severe weather
   coverage will remain too isolated to warrant a watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Within the left exit region of mid/upper-level wind
   maxima propagating through the Sierra Nevada into the Great Basin, a
   fairly long-lived cluster of thunderstorms has persisted this
   morning across north-central into northeast NV. Downstream from that
   convection, a fairly moist air mass is currently being observed
   across northern UT with dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s. The
   moisture combined with steep mid-level lapse rates is already
   contributing to MLCAPE as high as 500 J/kg across portions of
   northern UT as of 15Z. Additional destabilization is anticipated
   through the remainder of the morning into afternoon with the
   continued warming of the boundary layer.

   Consistent with current observational data, latest convection-
   allowing model guidance suggests a climatologically early increase
   in severe storm potential, initially across northern UT and
   southeast ID with activity subsequently spreading into western WY.
   Steadily strengthening mid/upper-level winds will result in
   sufficiently strong vertical shear for transient supercell and
   bowing structures capable of isolated occurrences of severe wind
   gusts and large hail.

   ..Mead/Guyer.. 06/27/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...

   LAT...LON   41101394 42091363 43011206 44031086 44070973 43780918
               43090917 42350919 41710990 41131087 40631208 40451291
               40431366 41101394 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN