US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1347

   Mesoscale Discussion 1347
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0515 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of northeast Colorado into the Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439...

   Valid 202215Z - 202345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439

   SUMMARY...While large hail and a tornado or two will remain
   possible, particularly within more favorable mesoscale corridors,
   the primary hazard over the next few hours will likely be severe
   gusts associated with a developing MCS in the Nebraska Panhandle.

   DISCUSSION...A supercell in eastern Wyoming, which was responsible
   for a few 4.5 in. hail reports, has grown upscale into a linear
   segment in the western Nebraska. This has occurred as the activity
   moved into a very well-mixed boundary layer. Given this trend,
   potential for severe gusts will likely increase with time. This
   complex recently produced a 61 kt gust at Scottsbluff, NE. Large
   hail will also remain possible, though very-large hail will be
   conditional on a supercell mode. Some tornado risk will also remain
   with the remnant supercell circulation/bookend vortex as well as
   with any storm favorably interacting with the warm front in northern
   Nebraska. As a cold pool circulation matures in the Nebraska
   Panhandle, an increasing low-level jet should promote storm
   maintenance into the evening farther east.

   Farther south into the Foothills, storms will likely remain more
   disorganized due to weaker shear. However, large hail and perhaps a
   weak tornado (due to ambient low-level vorticity stretched by
   updrafts) may still occur.

   ..Wendt.. 06/20/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40260515 41310442 41780406 42350381 42820258 42660202
               41710215 40470323 40130420 40090491 40260515 

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