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Mesoscale Discussion 1340 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1340 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Areas affected...parts of New England and NY Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 201526Z - 201730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered damaging winds from gusts of 50-65 mph, along with isolated hail from 0.75-1.50 inches in diameter will be possible this afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely for parts of the region, centered from east NY into south ME. DISCUSSION...Low 70s surface dew points remain pervasive in lower elevations across central/east NY into ME. Robust diabatic heating of this moisture plume will result in moderately large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg becoming common in the next few hours. A pair of MCVs embedded within a zonal mid-level flow regime, the lead one over the Upper St. Lawrence Valley and an upstream one near the Georgian Bay of Lake Huron, should aid in scattered to widespread thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be weak, especially with south extent, and initial mode will predominately be pulse. But some congealing and loosely organized multicell clustering may occur where effective bulk shear holds around 20 kts, ahead of the lead MCV. The most favored corridor appears to be centered on the Champlain Valley into south ME. Strong to isolated severe wind gusts of 50-65 mph producing potentially scattered tree damage appears to be the primary threat, but isolated marginally severe hail will be possible as well. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 42167637 44947430 45117192 45247061 45476931 44666848 43307011 42457107 41867462 42167637 |
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