Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1339

   Mesoscale Discussion 1339
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0528 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

   Areas affected...parts of the Texas/Oklahoma
   Panhandles...northwestern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 262228Z - 270030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development is underway and
   could persist into at least the 7-9 PM CDT time frame, accompanied
   by potential for producing large hail and locally damaging wind
   gusts.

   DISCUSSION...A subtle short wave perturbation migrating around the
   northern periphery of subtropical ridging may be suppressing
   otherwise larger-scale mid-level height rises across the region, as
   thunderstorm development begins to initiate, aided by at least a
   couple zones of stronger low-level convergence/confluence within lee
   surface troughing.  This is occurring in the presence of modest
   westerly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 20 kt, but veering of
   winds with height in lower to mid-levels may be contributing to
   sufficient shear for organized thunderstorm development.

   Mid-level thermodynamic profiles are also relatively warm, but the
   boundary-layer is characterized by seasonably high moisture content.
   This appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg. 
   It remains unclear how long, and the extent to which, mid-level
   inhibition will continue to be overcome.  However, the evolution of
   supercell structures appears possible during the next few hours.

   ..Kerr.. 06/26/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36780050 36820007 36909894 36629753 35809786 35379925
               35270064 35960077 36540103 36780050 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN