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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1337

Mesoscale Discussion 1337
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1337
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0744 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

   Areas affected...southern New Mexico into far western Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436...

   Valid 200044Z - 200145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436

   SUMMARY...Large-hail and damaging-wind risk continues in WW436.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorm activity continues within
   the southern portion of WW434. Storms within the northern portion of
   the watch have generally produced hail around 1-1.5 inches, through
   isolated hail up to 2 in was recorded near Torrance County, NM. A
   few more isolated cells continue within the northern fringes of the
   watch, but the air mass further north has largely been overturned by
   convection. The best instability remains from the Sacramento
   Mountains southward to the Guadalupe Mountains and into far western
   Texas, where surface objective analysis indicates around 1000-2000
   J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of deep layer shear. Recent gusts of
   60-70 mph have been reported. Within this environment, the greatest
   short-term wind/hail threat will likely continue.

   ..Thornton.. 06/20/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31980658 32780666 32880665 33360637 33560579 33600522
               33550492 33490477 33390464 33220454 31630492 31320522
               31350593 31980658 

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