Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1336

   Mesoscale Discussion 1336
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0336 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

   Areas affected...southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and
   western Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 262036Z - 262230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for a few severe storms capable of locally
   damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes appears to be increasing.
   Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

   DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms has recently
   intensified in the vicinity of I-55 near Cape Girardeau, on the
   southwest flank of a large-scale convective system collocated with
   an MCV. The ambient environment is quite moist and moderately
   unstable with MLCAPE estimated in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. The
   storms have exhibited some rotation amidst a modestly sheared
   environment, per the current KPAH VWP. However, latest short-term
   model guidance suggests that a southwesterly low-level jet will
   gradually strengthen late this afternoon into early evening, which
   will contribute to some increase in low-level shear. As such,
   tornado potential may tend to increase over the next hour or two,
   along with a risk for damaging wind gusts.

   Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch issuance.

   ..Mead/Guyer.. 06/26/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...

   LAT...LON   37239022 37658998 37888927 37948842 37688788 37098792
               36838813 36638862 36618910 36688951 36858999 37239022 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN