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Mesoscale Discussion 1334 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1334 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Areas affected...east-central NM Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191942Z - 192145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few drifting cells may congeal into a slow-moving cluster, centered on east-central New Mexico, through early evening. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are possible. DISCUSSION...Convective development has increased this hour near a residual outflow boundary and along on the higher terrain from the Sacramento Mountains northward. Adequate veering of the low-level wind profile with height from low-level east-southeasterlies turning to mid-level southwesterlies (as sampled by the FDX VWP) may support transient supercell structures. This would seemingly be most favored near the large-scale outflow boundary, but convection in this corridor has already shown a tendency to cluster quickly. While a more longer-lasting supercell could develop, the predominant expectation is for transient organization and slow-moving clustering into early evening. Isolated large hail from 1-1.75 inches in diameter and isolated severe gusts from 55-70 mph appear possible. ..Grams/Smith.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 34730623 35290521 35560439 35460364 34970320 33710330 33130455 32750525 32960567 33950610 34640624 34730623 |
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