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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1334

Mesoscale Discussion 1334
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1334
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0242 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

   Areas affected...east-central NM

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191942Z - 192145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few drifting cells may congeal into a slow-moving
   cluster, centered on east-central New Mexico, through early evening.
   Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Convective development has increased this hour near a
   residual outflow boundary and along on the higher terrain from the
   Sacramento Mountains northward. Adequate veering of the low-level
   wind profile with height from low-level east-southeasterlies turning
   to mid-level southwesterlies (as sampled by the FDX VWP) may support
   transient supercell structures. This would seemingly be most favored
   near the large-scale outflow boundary, but convection in this
   corridor has already shown a tendency to cluster quickly. While a
   more longer-lasting supercell could develop, the predominant
   expectation is for transient organization and slow-moving clustering
   into early evening. Isolated large hail from 1-1.75 inches in
   diameter and isolated severe gusts from 55-70 mph appear possible.

   ..Grams/Smith.. 06/19/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34730623 35290521 35560439 35460364 34970320 33710330
               33130455 32750525 32960567 33950610 34640624 34730623 

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