Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1333

   Mesoscale Discussion 1333
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0237 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

   Areas affected...central Virginia into the Delmarva

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 261937Z - 262130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for locally damaging wind gusts is expected
   to increase across the discussion area this afternoon into early
   evening. The areal coverage and magnitude of the threat are expected
   to remain too limited for a watch consideration.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends indicate gradually strengthening
   storms along the Blue Ridge Mountains in northern VA with additional
   storms noted in southeast WV. East of the high terrain, a relatively
   warm and moist air mass is present with steep low-level lapse rates
   and MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg indicated in latest objective
   analyses. The presence of a westerly, deep-layer wind field should
   support the eastward movement of storms across the discussion area
   with the absence of appreciable forcing for ascent potentially
   limiting overall storm coverage.

   The KRLX and KLWX VWPs indicate 30-35 kt winds above 5 km, which are
   boosting vertical shear generally along and north of that latitude.
   That modest shear enhancement may contribute to some briefly
   organized storms capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Relatively
   warm mid-level temperatures and resultant poor lapse rates should
   limit large hail potential.

   Given the expected isolated nature of the threat, a watch is not
   anticipated.

   ..Mead/Guyer.. 06/26/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37917993 38317971 38907858 39347734 39357633 39097564
               38577537 37957594 37637758 37397828 37357879 37407922
               37537966 37917993 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH