Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1333

   Mesoscale Discussion 1333
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1247 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

   Areas affected...portions of northeast Indiana...southern Lower
   Michigan and northern Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191747Z - 191915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with
   the potential for some clustering. Damaging gusts and isolated hail
   are possible and a WW is being considered.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1740 UTC, early afternoon visible satellite
   imagery showed initial updrafts were deepening across parts of
   eastern IN and northwestern OH along the western edge of a strong
   east coast ridge. Intermixed with scattered high clouds, strong
   diurnal heating is ongoing along a subtle confluence axis aiding in
   further vertical development. Observational trends and hi-res
   guidance suggest scattered storm development is likely over the next
   couple of hours as convective temperatures are breached and
   remaining inhibition is removed. 70s F surface dewpoints and steep
   low-level lapse rates are supporting moderate buoyancy (1500-2500
   J/kg of MLCAPE) more than adequate for strong updrafts. Area VADs
   show a slight enhancement of mid-level flow along the periphery of
   the broad ridge over the eastern US. While not overly strong, bulk
   shear values of 20-25 kt should be sufficient for sustained
   multi-cells with some potential for clustering. Drier mid-level air
   and steep low-level lapse rates will be favorable for a few more
   robust downdrafts capable of damaging severe gusts. A few instances
   of marginally severe hail are also possible with the longer lived
   and deeper updrafts given the relatively large buoyancy and somewhat
   enhanced vertical shear. With the potential for some stronger
   clusters of storms to develop and persist, a severe thunderstorm
   watch may be needed this afternoon for portions of OH, IN and Lower
   MI.

   ..Lyons/Smith.. 06/19/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...

   LAT...LON   40018499 40638543 41238538 42148457 42688375 42828319
               42668254 41988301 41738293 41608256 41558212 41598182
               41588148 41408147 41308151 40698209 39828360 39808378
               39778418 40008485 40018499