Mesoscale Discussion 1323 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Areas affected...portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Oklahoma Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 392... Valid 260020Z - 260145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 392 continues. SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorm development across portions of southwestern Kansas within Tornado Watch 392 may pose a risk for all severe hazards, with a conditional risk for a strong tornado or two. DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm has developed southwest of Dodge City, KS, within a zone of enhanced low-level convergence along a surface stationary boundary and remnant outflow boundary. Uncertainty remains regarding whether this storm (and any additional development) will persist eastward owing to low-level inhibition north of the remnant outflow boundary (75-100 J/kg inhibition sampled for surface and mixed-layer parcels by the 00 UTC DDC observed sounding). For any persisting storm, strong effective shear will support supercells capable of large to very large hail given elongated hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates (around 7.0-7.5 C/km per latest objective analysis). Additionally, should storms persist farther east into south-central Kansas/north-central Oklahoma, a conditional tornado threat will exist. Enhanced low-level shear north of the outflow boundary (350+ 0-1 km SRH sampled by the ICT VWP) coupled with a strengthening southerly, low-level jet will promote a risk for tornadoes, some potentially strong, with any supercell that can become surface based (or where dynamical lifting within supercell mesocyclones can overcome modest low-level stability). This scenario remains uncertain at this time, however, due to the strength of inhibition across southern Kansas. ..Chalmers.. 06/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 36980130 37110169 37250183 37530181 37840152 38000120 38180076 38200049 38120017 37989984 37709959 37439955 37139965 36940007 36920058 36950109 37000130 36980130 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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