US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1321

   Mesoscale Discussion 1321
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0212 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

   Areas affected...West Central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 181912Z - 182045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Weather watch issuance is expected by 20Z-21Z, primarily
   for a damaging wind and hail threat as storms develop along a cold
   front in west-central Kansas.

   DISCUSSION...A cold front progressing slowly southeastward through
   west-central Kansas is expected to be the focus of severe
   thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. The warm
   sector ahead of the cold front is characterized by surface dewpoints
   in the upper 60s F, and temperatures already warming into the mid to
   upper 90s F, resulting in 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE that supports deep
   convection. The more substantial deep layer shear (45-55 kts) is
   confined to the cool side of the boundary, with the warm sector
   sector shear being more meager (25-30 kts). As the cold front
   continues to progress slowly southeast and the boundary layer ahead
   of it continues to warm, thunderstorm development is expected by
   20Z. Given the lack of deep layer shear ahead of the cold front, and
   boundary parallel shear vectors, storm mode is expected to be
   predominantly linear, though storms may exhibit transient supercell
   characteristics before growing upscale. 

   Given the large T/Td spreads in the boundary layer, and high
   mixed-layer LCL heights evident in the SPC mesoanalysis and RAP
   forecast profiles, damaging wind gusts are expected - a few of which
   may be > 65 kts. Given the potential for initial supercell storm
   mode and strong buoyancy, a threat for significant hail may develop
   with any cells that remain discrete. A tornado threat cannot be
   ruled out with any discrete convection in southwest Kansas as
   low-level shear will improve as the nocturnal low-level jet

   With increasing severe risk this afternoon likely, a weather watch
   is expected.

   ..Halbert/Lyons/Gleason.. 06/18/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37930101 38330063 38630014 39019966 39069918 39089851
               39079824 38989803 38749784 38649769 38309762 37899827
               37349939 37090019 37080094 37540103 37930101 

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