Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1319

   Mesoscale Discussion 1319
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0507 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the eastern Oklahoma
   Panhandle...northeastern Texas Panhandle...and northwestern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 392...

   Valid 252207Z - 252330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 392 continues.

   SUMMARY...A discrete supercell in the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle
   will pose a risk primarily for large to very large hail and damaging
   wind gusts over the next 1-2 hours. The tornado risk with this storm
   remains more uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...A discrete supercell has intensified along a remnant
   outflow boundary in Beaver County, Oklahoma over the past hour. A
   couple of tornadoes have been reported with this cell, and MRMS and
   other MESH estimates have ranged up to 4+ inches over the past 30-60
   minutes. Given the favorable environment and the potential for this
   cell to remain largely discrete for another hour or two before it
   potentially interacts with convection to the southwest, large to
   very large hail (potentially up to 2+ inches in diameter) and
   damaging wind gusts will remain possible with this supercell. 

   Bunkers right motion and the recent track of the supercell suggest
   that it may remain along the remnant outflow boundary. In this
   scenario, tornado potential will remain greater given the favorable
   low-level shear along/north of the outflow boundary (100+ 0-500 m
   SRH sampled by the VNX VAD profile). Should this supercell attain
   more of a southeastward track, however, it would encounter a drier,
   more well-mixed boundary layer exists (MLLCLs exceeding 2 km per
   latest objective analysis and the 18z AMA observed sounding), which
   would result in a lower tornado threat.

   ..Chalmers.. 06/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36530036 36680037 36840020 36839993 36779957 36699933
               36569926 36429923 36299942 36309980 36380013 36480036
               36530036 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN