US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1318

   Mesoscale Discussion 1318
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1235 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

   Areas affected...portions of far northeastern Kentucky...far western
   West Virginia...eastern Ohio...western Pennsylvania...far
   southwestern New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 181735Z - 181900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging gusts and isolated instances of
   hail will continue to gradually increase through the afternoon. The
   overall severe threat should be more sparse, and a WW issuance is
   not currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...A moist low-level airmass continues to advect northward
   and pivot around a deep-layer anticyclone currently positioned over
   the Mid Atlantic region. Robust heating of this moist airmass is
   resulting in convective temperatures (i.e. 88-90 F) being reached
   over many locales, with thunderstorm initiation already underway.
   Overspreading this airmass are 6+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, which
   are supporting narrow, but tall CAPE profiles, with 2000+ J/kg
   MLCAPE already becoming widespread. The current synoptic regime
   around the anticyclone is fostering weak vertical shear/flow
   profiles, so pulse-cellular is the expected mode of convection,
   though multicells are also possible. Wet downbursts with the
   stronger storms should support strong wind gusts, some of which may
   cause damage. An instance or two of hail are also possible. However,
   severe (50+ kt) winds are not expected to be particularly
   widespread, so a WW appears unlikely at this time.

   ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/18/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37168390 40228313 41548210 42757904 42437780 41717740
               40867792 40197846 39307980 38168080 37238200 37008303

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