Mesoscale Discussion 1318 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...portions of far northeastern Kentucky...far western West Virginia...eastern Ohio...western Pennsylvania...far southwestern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181735Z - 181900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging gusts and isolated instances of hail will continue to gradually increase through the afternoon. The overall severe threat should be more sparse, and a WW issuance is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...A moist low-level airmass continues to advect northward and pivot around a deep-layer anticyclone currently positioned over the Mid Atlantic region. Robust heating of this moist airmass is resulting in convective temperatures (i.e. 88-90 F) being reached over many locales, with thunderstorm initiation already underway. Overspreading this airmass are 6+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, which are supporting narrow, but tall CAPE profiles, with 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE already becoming widespread. The current synoptic regime around the anticyclone is fostering weak vertical shear/flow profiles, so pulse-cellular is the expected mode of convection, though multicells are also possible. Wet downbursts with the stronger storms should support strong wind gusts, some of which may cause damage. An instance or two of hail are also possible. However, severe (50+ kt) winds are not expected to be particularly widespread, so a WW appears unlikely at this time. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX... JKL...ILN... LAT...LON 37168390 40228313 41548210 42757904 42437780 41717740 40867792 40197846 39307980 38168080 37238200 37008303 37168390