Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1304

   Mesoscale Discussion 1304
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0858 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

   Areas affected...portions of extreme northeastern Colorado into
   southwestern Nebraska and far northwestern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390...

   Valid 250158Z - 250300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe wind and hail may continue with ongoing supercells.
   There is some indication of upscale growth into an MCS. Should this
   occur, then severe winds will become the predominant threat.

   DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar data depicts multiple supercells
   progressing southward across western/central NE. Some of these
   storms have a history of severe wind and hail, with the latest
   mosaic MRMS MESH data showing multiple storms potentially producing
   2+ inch diameter hail. Based on the last few runs of the HRRR and
   WoFS ensemble guidance, it appears that supercells will persist for
   at least a few more hours, accompanied by both severe hail and
   gusts. However, as also shown by the HRRR/WoFS, cold pool mergers
   with ongoing supercells may encourage upscale growth into an MCS in
   a few hours, with severe gusts becoming the main threat. Regardless
   of storm morphology and evolution, the 00Z mesoanalysis shows 1500+
   J/kg MLCAPE and 50+ kts of effective bulk shear preceding the
   ongoing storms, so the severe wind and hail should persist in some
   form through the evening hours.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   41240259 41480166 41520076 41379990 41079914 40569879
               40009876 39759894 39589940 39590003 39770079 39970143
               40240206 40500242 40820258 41240259 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN