Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1300

   Mesoscale Discussion 1300
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0634 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northwestern Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242334Z - 250100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch appears unlikely at
   this time, but trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a surface
   temperature/thermal gradient in place across portions of northern
   Indiana. Despite dense cloud cover, low-level warm, moist air
   advection has resulted in temperatures and dewpoints rising into the
   mid-70s and low-60s F, respectively, south of this boundary. While
   latest objective analysis indicates that buoyancy remains negligible
   (less than 250 J/kg MLCAPE) across this area, recent high-res
   guidance suggests that weak destabilization may occur south of this
   surface boundary over the next 1-2 hours preceding the arrival of
   convection currently ongoing across northern/northeastern Illinois.
   The overall expectation is for convection to weaken as it
   approaches/enters northwestern Indiana owing to the aforementioned
   weaker buoyancy and waning diurnal cycle. Thus, downstream watch
   issuance appears unlikely at this time. Trends will continue to be
   monitored, however, as effective shear of 35-40+ kts may allow a
   low-end severe risk to persist into northwestern Indiana.

   ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/24/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...

   LAT...LON   41088744 41408743 41538714 41528697 41478671 41358647
               41178627 40888615 40538617 40378627 40268645 40208697
               40318740 40498751 41088744 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN