|
Mesoscale Discussion 1293 | |
<Â Previous MD | |
![]() |
|
Mesoscale Discussion 1293 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0838 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Areas affected...Northeast CO...southeast WY...NE Panhandle into northwest NE...southwest/south-central SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 170138Z - 170345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later this evening, with large hail and localized severe gusts expected to be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...High-based convection is gradually strengthening east of Denver. The short-term evolution of this convection is uncertain, but it moves northeastward into an increasingly unstable environment across northeast CO, some further intensification is possible. Deep-layer shear is sufficient to support some storm organization, and some threat for hail and localized severe gusts could evolve if ongoing convection is able to mature. Later this evening, an increasing low-level jet (which is already noted on the KGLD VWP) will support the northward advance of stronger elevated buoyancy and the potential for elevated storm development across the NE Panhandle vicinity into southwest/south-central SD. Very steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for organized convection, with a threat of large hail. The strongest storms within this regime could pose a conditional threat of very large hail, especially with any cells that are able to remain semi-discrete. Localized severe wind gusts will also be possible. Timing and the most favored corridor of the primary severe threat remain somewhat uncertain, but watch issuance will become increasingly probable across parts of the region by 9-10 PM MDT (10-11 PM CDT). ..Dean/Smith.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40610208 39960318 39930391 40040425 40490448 41060463 42500427 43180365 43430338 43960084 44009938 43569863 42299986 40610208 |
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home |