Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1293

   Mesoscale Discussion 1293
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0111 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico into southern Colorado and the
   Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 241811Z - 242045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing within the higher terrain of the
   southern Rockies will pose a severe wind/hail threat as they spread
   east through the late afternoon and early evening. Watch issuance
   will likely be needed later this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...The effects of strong diurnal heating/boundary-layer
   mixing and orographic ascent are quickly becoming apparent in GOES
   imagery across much of New Mexico. Several regions of building
   cumulus are noted as temperatures warm into the low 90s and
   lingering inhibition quickly erodes. Building cumulus is also noted
   along the Sangre De Cristo and Sandia Manzano mountains where
   upslope flow is providing focused forcing for ascent a few deeper
   towers are noted in low-level water-vapor imagery, suggesting that
   initial attempts at deep convective initiation will likely occur
   within the next hour or so. 

   Sustained convection developing along the terrain will spread east
   within given westerly flow regime aloft. Lingering inhibition at
   lower elevations may limit how quickly high-based convection can
   utilize near-surface parcels, but once MLCIN erodes and/or cold
   pools can become sufficiently deep, convection will be influenced by
   the regionally rich low-level moisture in place across eastern NM/CO
   (dewpoints in the upper 50s to 60s) that is supporting MLCAPE values
   upwards of 1500 J/kg. Concurrently, convection will begin to realize
   the 30-35 knots of deep-layer wind shear (sampled by the KFDX VWP),
   which should promote supercellular storm modes initially with an
   attendant threat for large hail and severe gusts. Watch issuance
   will likely be needed by late afternoon as convection begins to
   mature and spread east into the more buoyant air mass.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 06/24/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34090497 34710527 35650528 36330512 36910489 37360490
               37650488 37860470 37850446 37770398 37530351 37170301
               36750279 35940270 34610257 34020268 33740294 33610342
               33560390 33600428 33690457 33820478 34090497 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN