US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1284

   Mesoscale Discussion 1284
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1008 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

   Areas affected...western North Dakota into far northwestern South

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 422...

   Valid 160308Z - 160415Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 422 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe risk continues within WW422, with potential for
   large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.

   DISCUSSION...A line of severe thunderstorms continues to move
   eastward into western North Dakota, with potential for damaging
   winds 60-75 mph (some instances 75+ mph). This line of storms
   continues to move into a favorably unstable environment with strong
   deep layer shear and steep lapse rates. More favorable low-level
   wind profiles are observed across northwestern North Dakota, where
   0-3 km shear values are around 40-45 kts with 0-1 km shear around 20
   kts. This may lead to some increase of risk for embedded
   mesovortices and a tornado or two within the line. 

   Further south across southwestern North Dakota near the South Dakota
   border, more discrete convection is ongoing with history of
   producing hail up to baseball size. Given the weaker low-level shear
   profiles in this region, the main threats are likely to continue to
   be large hail and damaging wind, though a tornado cannot be ruled
   out with more mature supercell modes.

   ..Thornton.. 06/16/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   47560404 48930402 48950286 48740224 48120175 46840104
               46380064 45790082 45640183 45610242 45680314 46380381

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