Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1281

   Mesoscale Discussion 1281
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0825 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of the TX South Plains into the northern
   Permian Basin vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 160125Z - 160300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A localized threat for hail and severe gusts may persist
   through 9-10 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...A small supercell cluster has recently formed
   west-southwest of Lubbock, within a region of moderate buoyancy and
   moderate deep-layer shear (as noted in the recent KLBB VWP). Steep
   midlevel lapse rates (as observed in the 00Z MAF sounding) will
   continue to support a hail threat with these storms for as long as
   they persist, along with some potential for isolated severe gusts.
   Increasing MLCINH should lead to a weakening trend later tonight,
   but some threat for hail of golfball size or larger may persist
   through 9-10 PM CDT as storms spread slowly southeastward.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 06/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33210294 33650267 33900225 33720178 32800157 32750219
               32730267 33210294