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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1278

Mesoscale Discussion 1278
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1278
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0658 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

   Areas affected...Northwest MO into western/central IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 152358Z - 160130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a
   tornado or two will spread eastward this evening. Watch issuance is

   DISCUSSION...A storm cluster is gradually increasing in size across
   northeast KS into southeast NE, as the northern portion of a smaller
   cluster that developed earlier over central KS begins to merge with
   ongoing storms across southeast NE. Moderate downstream buoyancy and
   marginally sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support
   organized convection through the evening, and the ongoing storm
   cluster is expected to move into parts of northwest MO and
   southwest/central IA with time. 

   With a linear mode already established, damaging winds may be the
   most likely hazard as storms progress east-northeastward this
   evening. However, rather strong low-level shear/SRH (as noted on
   regional VWPs) will also support potential for a tornado or two.
   Downstream watch issuance is likely between 7-8 PM CDT if trends
   continue to support a severe threat this evening into northwest MO
   and southwest/central IA.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 06/15/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40059512 41299505 41989494 42189481 42199412 42099318
               41239308 39819337 39519448 39559484 40059512 

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