Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1277

   Mesoscale Discussion 1277
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0605 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of northeast KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419...

   Valid 152305Z - 160030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Some threat for severe gusts will persist into early
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...A small thunderstorm cluster with a history of
   producing severe gusts is moving across northeast KS. A shortwave
   trough moving across central KS is likely aiding this storm cluster,
   which will likely persist in some form through early evening. While
   there has been some tendency for outflow to outpace the leading edge
   of convection, some reintensification of this cluster will be
   possible as it moves into a downstream environment characterized by
   richer low-level moisture and MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg. Given
   the current outflow-dominant cluster mode, severe gusts will likely
   continue to be the primary threat in the short term, though the
   downstream environment would also favor some potential for hail and
   possibly a tornado, if any more cellular development can occur
   along/ahead of the ongoing storms.

   ..Dean.. 06/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39519706 39759626 39689575 39339549 38879553 38619580
               38489627 38519691 39519706