Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1273

   Mesoscale Discussion 1273
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1247 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

   Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231747Z - 231945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms may produce sporadic wind damage
   through the mid-afternoon hours. Given the marginal downstream
   environment, watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A semi-organized band of thunderstorms has emerged to
   the northwest of the Tulsa, OK metro over the past hour with a
   consolidated coldpool/outflow evident in nearby KINX imagery.
   Although most wind reports thus far have been between 20-30 mph,
   GOES IR imagery and lightning counts suggest that this band has been
   slowly strengthening. Further downstream, widespread cloud cover and
   cool outflow from prior convection is muting diurnal heating;
   nonetheless, temperatures are warming into the mid/upper 70s with an
   attendant increase in MLCAPE noted in recent mesoanalyses.
   Consequently, further intensification of the line appears possible
   in the next few hours and may support an increase in damaging wind
   potential. VWP observations from KINX show a fairly modest kinematic
   environment, which will likely act to modulate overall storm
   intensity and preclude the need for watch issuance.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 06/23/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35859664 36099643 36329632 36479633 36629637 36719624
               36929480 36679456 36469453 36209451 35839459 35629474
               35529498 35749653 35859664 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN