US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1262

   Mesoscale Discussion 1262
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0244 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

   Areas affected...The High Plains of Colorado...far northeastern
   NM...far southeastern Wyoming...and the Nebraska panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 141944Z - 142045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms posing a risk of large hail,
   damaging winds, and perhaps a landspout or two expected.

   DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite and radar trends indicate
   destabilization and ascent are increasing from the Raton Mesa
   (preceding an outflow boundary) and northward along the front range
   of CO. In addition, deeper, pooling moisture, indicative of
   widespread cumulus across the northeastern CO High Plains is
   beginning to show sings of increasing vertical development. As a mid
   to upper shortwave trough continues to approach from the Four
   Corners region, broader ascent/diffluence aloft, DCVA, and
   increasing deep layer effective shear will overspread the region.
   Diurnal heating will also result in increasing buoyancy ahead of
   this feature, especially across CO where less cloud cover has been
   present within the warm sector. 

   More cellular/discrete like thunderstorms this afternoon through
   early this evening will have the opportunity to produce large hail
   near 1-1.75" in diameter, and perhaps a landspout or two as
   low-level lapse rates continue to steepen. Thereafter, merging
   clusters and deepening cold pools will be capable of producing
   damaging wind gusts near 65-80 mph within a more deeply mixed
   boundary layer across the eastern High Plains. A WW will be needed

   ..Barnes/Gleason.. 06/14/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42530469 42120506 41360505 40970521 39900551 39090554
               38480551 37470507 36150532 35750495 35920408 36240314
               37000233 37230214 38120200 40000202 40900213 41240259
               42210333 42480375 42530469 

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