Mesoscale Discussion 1262 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0521 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Areas affected...eastern Colorado Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 377... Valid 222221Z - 230015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 377 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of eastern Colorado. The background environment will support thunderstorm development through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Isolated convection has developed this afternoon across portions of Colorado. The most prominent of the Colorado initiated storms is located near Colorado Springs, CO, where a recent hail report of 1.5" aligns with the multi-radar, multi-sensor (MRMS) estimate of around 2". Another storm cluster, which developed across the High Plains of Wyoming, is moving into northeast Colorado (and Severe Thunderstorm Watch #377). This storm also has a history of producing 1.5-1.75" diameter hail, aligning with the MRMS estimates of approximately 2". Surface temperatures have warmed into the upper-80Fs (north) to 90Fs (south), which have resulted in steep low-to-mid-level lapse rates. Surface dewpoints range from the low-to-mid-50Fs abutting the higher terrain to low 60Fs in portions of the Colorado plains, contributing to around 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Southeast low-level winds and westerly mid-level flow to the north of the mid-level ridge across the area yields around 40-50 knots of effective-layer shear. The instability-shear combination should remain favorable for sustained updrafts to become supercells. A long, relatively straight hodograph would tend to favor splitting supercells, with the right-mover moving generally south. Although storms have remained relatively isolated this afternoon, continued moist low-level upslope flow this afternoon will support additional thunderstorm attempts. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard. ..Marsh.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 37020515 39400471 39840390 41180377 41170284 41160205 37000204 37020515 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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