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Mesoscale Discussion 1249 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1249 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Areas affected...Northwest/West-Central IL...Southern IA...Northern MO...Far Southeast NE...Northeast KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 131902Z - 132100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a cold front from northwest/west-central Illinois into far southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas this afternoon. Very large hail up to 3" in diameter and gusts from 60 to 80 mph are possible and a watch will be needed to cover this severe potential. DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery has recently shown an increase in deepening cumulus along a pre-frontal trough from northwest/west-central IL west-southwestward into far southeast NE and northeast KS. Temperatures in this region have warmed into the upper 80s/low 90s amid dewpoints in the low 70s, contributing to very strong buoyancy. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE currently ranges from 2500 J/kg over IL to over 3500 J/kg across far southeast NE and northeast KS. These values will likely increase as strong diurnal heating persists throughout the afternoon. As observed in recent ACARS soundings and the 18Z DVN sounding, some convective inhibition remains in place, but continued diurnal heating should help to erode this inhibition as well. Robust thunderstorm development is expected to take place quickly once inhibition erodes and convective initiation occurs. Large to very large hail up to 3" in diameter is possible with the initial, more cellular development. Strong buoyancy amid high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will foster strong outflow, with the potential for this outflow to amalgamate with resultant upscale growth into a coherent convective line. When this occurs, the primary severe risk should shift to severe gusts (i.e. 60 to 80 mph). Veered low-level flow and a mixed boundary layer should mitigate the tornado potential, although a low probability for a tornado or two exists whenever there is a predominantly supercellular mode. ..Mosier/Gleason.. 06/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 41828982 41308948 40268979 39839035 39449156 38959420 39019582 40349654 41159471 41469241 41899111 41828982 |
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