US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1248

   Mesoscale Discussion 1248
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0153 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

   Areas affected...The High Plains of eastern Colorado...western
   Kansas...far northeastern NM...and the Panhandles of Texas and

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 131853Z - 132130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe
   thunderstorms are expected to develop over the next 1-3 hours across
   the High Plains. Severe wind gusts near 60-75 mph, and perhaps
   localized instances of marginally severe hail, may accompany a few
   of the thunderstorms.

   DISCUSSION...Rapid warming has led to temperatures climbing into the
   upper 90s and low triple digits across the High Plains this
   afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Recent visible
   satellite imagery, radar, and lightning data suggest convective
   initiation is underway along a quasi-dryline/surface trough across
   far northeastern NM and CO. Farther north across northern CO,
   convergence and upslope flow are aiding in additional moist
   convection. Finally, to the east across western KS, a few cumulus
   are now visible along a prefrontal trough near a surface low. As
   more of the area continues to reach convective temperatures, a few
   robust updrafts and multicell clusters will be possible.

   Although deep layer effective shear is fairly weak across this
   region, some stronger mid to upper-level flow and slightly cooler
   temperatures aloft over northern CO could support transient
   organization and brief marginally severe hail. However, the main
   severe concern this afternoon through early this evening will be
   severe damaging wind gusts given a deeply mixed boundary layer/very
   large DCAPE, especially near western KS and eastern CO where
   clustering appears the most likely within a zone of maximum surface
   convergence. Trends will be monitored for a possible watch.

   ..Barnes/Gleason.. 06/13/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39870338 40300392 40740420 40920435 41360486 41390523
               41380555 41220574 40860576 40550568 40150550 39660526
               39170482 38910442 38660404 38470361 38300337 38230335
               37930328 37650330 36970376 36580404 36320414 35960410
               35710384 35660343 35890289 35990236 36340188 36890122
               37200059 37970015 38549999 39019992 39340008 39470058
               39750179 39870338 

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