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Mesoscale Discussion 1246 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Areas affected...Upper MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131655Z - 131900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and/or hail are possible across Upper Michigan as thunderstorm coverage increasing this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery has shown a gradually increasing depth to the cumulus along and just ahead of the cold front pushing southeastward across the region. Regional radar imagery and lightning data reveal that convective initiation has occurred across Marquette County MI as well as the cell that is just offshore north of the Marquette/Alger county line. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the next hour or so as the airmass continues to destabilize and the front pushes southeastward. Buoyancy is expected to remain fairly modest with MLCAPE likely remaining below 1500 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is already strong, with the MQT VAD sampling over 60 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear, with some additional strengthening possible as mid-level flow increases. General expectation is for a fast-moving multicellular mode, with a few isolated storms briefly becoming strong enough to produce damaging wind gusts and perhaps even an instance or two of hail. Severe coverage is expected to be limited, likely precluding the need for watch, but convective trends will be monitored closely. ..Mosier/Gleason.. 06/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB... LAT...LON 46108488 46018527 45878606 45668668 45608765 45788859 46278912 46748832 46808669 46838566 46798482 46108488 |
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