Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1244

   Mesoscale Discussion 1244
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0823 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of east-central Minnesota into far
   northwestern Wisconsin

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 406...

   Valid 130123Z - 130230Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 406 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of large hail, locally damaging gusts, and a
   tornado or two will continue across parts of east-central Minnesota
   into far northwestern Wisconsin for the next couple hours.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KDLH indicates an
   east/west-oriented band of semi-discrete supercells across Aitkin
   and Pine Counties in east-central MN -- generally focused along an
   antecedent outflow boundary. Lower/middle 60s dewpoints immediately
   south of the boundary should continue to provide moderately unstable
   inflow for these storms, while around 200 m2/s2 0-500m SRH favors
   persistent low/midlevel mesocyclones. Given the favorable
   environment and semi-discrete updrafts, these storms will have the
   best chance of producing a tornado or two and isolated large hail in
   the near-term.

   Farther south (just north of the Minneapolis metro area), locally
   damaging gusts and isolated large hail could accompany a loosely
   organized band of storms, and a brief tornado cannot be entirely
   ruled out owing to the aforementioned favorable low-level SRH.
   However, these storms are impinging on increased MLCINH owing to
   cooler surface temperatures and slightly lower dewpoints compared to
   areas north.

   ..Weinman.. 06/13/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

   LAT...LON   46479373 46569319 46529202 46249159 45799159 45509197
               45349238 45289303 45339402 45499437 45679436 45939406
               46159395 46479373