Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1240

   Mesoscale Discussion 1240
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0451 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

   Areas affected...southern Wisconsin into far northern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122151Z - 130015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A corridor of strong to locally damaging gusts may extend
   across the rest of southern Wisconsin, and perhaps into far northern
   Illinois.

   DISCUSSION...A well-defined MCV is moving rapidly eastward across
   southwest WI, with periodically strong cores along the leading
   outflow. KOVS in southwest WI measured a 56 kt gust at 2107Z.

   Overall moisture and instability is weak. However, temperatures have
   warmed into the 90s F, with steep low-level lapse rates present.
   Visible imagery further shows Cu fields across IL, south of the
   cirrus to the north. Given southwesterly surface winds, sufficient
   warming may remain ahead of the MCV to support periodic upticks in
   intensity despite limited moisture. Strong gusts should continue to
   be the main threat, though a watch is not expected.

   ..Jewell.. 06/12/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

   LAT...LON   43159020 42908776 42558767 42208790 42288834 42468964
               42639032 42979045 43159020