Mesoscale Discussion 1235
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...and much of
southern Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 212221Z - 212345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm is ongoing across southeast Kansas,
with additional thunderstorms expected this afternoon/evening along
and east of this storm. The overall environment will support severe
potential with any of these storms and a watch will likely be
needed.
DISCUSSION...A remnant surface boundary, left over from the morning
MCS/MCV (currently located over Illinois/Indiana) is currently
located from northern Oklahoma northeast toward the greater St.
Louis, MO, metro. Recent satellite imagery shows increasingly
agitated cumulus development along this boundary, with an ongoing
severe thunderstorm across southeast Kansas. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region, most likely
developing east-northeast from ongoing convection across southeast
Kansas.
The environment along and south of this boundary is very unstable
with MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg with effective deep-layer shear
on the order 40-50 knots. Thus, any thunderstorm that does develop
will have the potential to become supercellular. The low-level wind
field is currently fairly weak, which should limit the tornado
potential in the near term across southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri. However, strong instability in the presence of a surface
boundary will yield some tornado potential. With time, congealing
outflows should result in an increasing wind threat as the storms
move east-southeast.
A watch will likely be needed.
..Marsh/Smith.. 06/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 36859641 37649637 38029503 38349338 38499178 38519075
38119039 37549018 37019118 36739333 36669536 36629604
36859641
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Source link