Mesoscale Discussion 1234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Areas affected...portions of northern into southwestern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 212219Z - 212315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase downstream of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 364, over northern into southwestern KS in a few
hours. Severe gusts/hail are likely, and a tornado is also possible.
A Severe Thunderstorm watch will be needed soon to address the
impending threat.
DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells with a history of severe gusts/hail
continue to progress southeastward along a diffuse baroclinic zone,
where strong instability and vertical wind shear reside. Per 22Z
mesoanalysis, a plume of 8.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, atop upper
60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints, is supporting 2500-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE across southwestern into central KS. Coinciding with this
strong buoyancy is 50-60 kts of effective bulk shear. Any storms
that remain supercellular in this environment will remain capable of
producing severe hail, including stones reaching 2-3 inches in
diameter, and perhaps a tornado. However, with time, storms should
develop into smaller line segments, where severe gusts (perhaps one
or two exceeding 75 mph) will become the main threat. A Severe
Thunderstorm watch will likely be needed soon.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 37790194 39329995 39959910 39969847 39719819 39329820
38699833 38179858 37779895 37479957 37310030 37240090
37290180 37790194
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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