Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1232

   Mesoscale Discussion 1232
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0333 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...southwest Nebraska...and
   northwest Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364...

   Valid 212033Z - 212230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for large hail continues across eastern
   Colorado and into southwest Nebraska. However, upscale growth into
   an MCS is anticipated through early evening with an attendant uptick
   in severe wind potential across northwest Kansas.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple instances of 1.0 to 1.75 inch hail have been
   noted across the central High Plains over the past couple of hours
   as loosely organized splitting supercells continue to develop and
   mature. Based on recent radar trends, these cells are likely
   sufficiently spaced to maintain mostly discrete storm modes for the
   next hour or two, which will maintain the threat for large hail -
   especially along/near the eastern CO border where thermodynamic
   conditions are most favorable for very large (2 inch) hail. 

   Beyond the next couple of hours, the combination of deviant storm
   motions and colliding outflow boundaries (at least one of which is
   already noted in reflectivity data from KFTG) will promote storm
   interactions and gradual upscale growth into one or more clusters.
   As this occurs, cold pool amalgamation/intensification within an
   environment featuring steep low-level lapse rates should promote
   increasing potential for severe wind gusts, including occasional
   gusts upwards of 75 mph. Per time-lagged HRRR/RRFS ensembles, this
   transition appears most likely to occur across east-central CO and
   into northwest KS during the 22-00 UTC time frame.

   ..Moore.. 06/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39040422 39320437 39570420 41360235 41620200 41670164
               41610122 40830006 40539992 40200000 39910028 38990125
               38690191 38570245 38530283 38530318 38590353 39040422 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN