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Mesoscale Discussion 1228 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1228 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico to western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101916Z - 102145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is underway across southeast New Mexico and far western Texas. Initially discrete cells will likely pose a severe hail/wind risk across southeast New Mexico before gradual upscale growth later this afternoon/evening into western Texas. Convective coverage remains uncertain, but trends will be monitored for the need for watch issuance across portions of west Texas. DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery show early thunderstorm development across far southeast NM into far western TX along a weak/diffuse low-level confluence axis, as well as within upslope flow regime on the eastern side of the Sacramento Mountains. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated through late afternoon as temperatures climb into the low/mid 80s and MLCIN continues to wane. Initial cells will likely be isolated, and may remain fairly weak given more marginal moisture/buoyancy within this initiation zone. However, 30-knot mid-level flow on the southern fringe of a weak mid-level vorticity maximum is elongating hodographs through 5 to 6 km AGL, which may support storm organization with an attendant severe hail/wind risk. Thunderstorms should intensify as they migrate downstream into the southern Permian Basin and northern Edwards Plateau where higher quality low-level moisture is noted in 19 UTC surface observations (dewpoints in the low to mid 60s). Discrete cells that can meander into this air mass may pose a more robust hail threat as they fully realize more substantial effective bulk shear (between 35-40 knots). However, given a somewhat deep (around 2 km), well-mixed boundary layer and weak low-level storm relative winds, storms may have a high probability of becoming outflow dominant within the first couple of hours. Upscale growth into a more organized cluster/line appears possible, but may be conditional on the coverage of initial cells (which remains uncertain). If this scenario occurs, a more focused wind threat may materialize downstream across parts of the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau later this evening. Trends will continue to be monitored for the need for watch issuance as storm coverage becomes more apparent. ..Moore/Gleason.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31780282 31990321 32200345 32530346 32940332 33250321 33660289 33750270 33740229 33640196 33540176 33350136 32680012 32240005 31750012 31360040 31000095 30880131 31000171 31780282 |
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