Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1227

   Mesoscale Discussion 1227
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0527 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

   Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Northeast Oklahoma...Southwest
   Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362...

   Valid 211027Z - 211130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for damaging wind gusts will be
   possible over the next couple of hours from southeast Kansas into
   northeast Oklahoma and southwest Missouri. The threat should be too
   isolated for additional weather watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...An MCS is ongoing from Kansas into far western
   Missouri, on the northern side of an unstable airmass. The MCS is
   being supported by strong warm advection and large-scale ascent
   associated with a shortwave trough moving through the region. The
   strongest part of the MCS is in southeast Kansas, where the RAP
   estimates that MUCAPE is near 2000 J/kg and effective shear is
   around 40 knots. This will be sufficient for an isolated severe
   threat early this morning. The potential for severe wind gusts
   should be maximized along the leading edge of any short bowing line
   segment that can remain organized and surface-based. The severe
   threat should become more isolated as inhibition continues to
   increase.

   ..Broyles.. 06/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   38879460 38459482 38129515 37919567 37919631 37879698
               37719741 37469766 36999774 36569728 36389648 36339545
               36419476 36569417 36949363 37649330 38389326 38749340
               38989382 38999421 38879460 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN