Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1217

   Mesoscale Discussion 1217
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0256 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024

   Areas affected...Central Colorado to northern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 091956Z - 092200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may pose an sporadic
   large hail and severe wind threat through the late afternoon hours.
   Watch issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has been well underway over the
   past several hours within the higher terrain of the central/southern
   Rockies of central CO to northern NM. Initial, orographically-driven
   cells have largely struggled to organize or persist for more than
   roughly 30 minutes due to poor environmental wind shear and residual
   capping over the lower elevations to the east. However, buoyancy is
   slowly increasing amid rising low-level temperatures with recent RAP
   mesoanalyses estimates showing SBCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg along
   the CO Front Range. MRMS hail/vertical ice metrics have shown a
   slow, but steady increase over the past few hours as updrafts
   realize the improving thermodynamic environment. As such, a few
   instances of severe hail appear possible through late afternoon as
   updrafts continue to develop within the upslope flow regime. The
   severe hail threat may be regionally highest along the CO Front
   Range where more persistent 10-15 knot southeasterly flow is
   supporting some hodograph elongation, which may promote better storm
   organization and longevity.

   Continued boundary-layer mixing through late afternoon should also
   promote increasing cold pool intensity/depth. This may allow for
   cold-pool-driven propagation of one or more storm clusters off the
   higher terrain with an attendant increase in severe wind potential
   through early evening. This scenario is hinted at in recent HRRR
   solutions across southeast CO/northeast NM, but confidence in this
   occurring at any one location is low given the inherent
   low-predictability of this high CAPE/low shear environment.

   ..Moore/Gleason.. 06/09/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...

   LAT...LON   35500599 35730635 36250647 37360646 37870651 38430649
               38950647 39480610 39660572 39650491 39440460 39180449
               38820446 38340442 38020433 37460414 36660411 36130422
               35680477 35420545 35370578 35500599