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Mesoscale Discussion 1216 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1216 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico into western Texas and southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091935Z - 092130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated through the late afternoon hours across southeast New Mexico into western and central Texas and southwest/southern Oklahoma. While sporadic hail and damaging winds are possible, storm organization/longevity should remain limited. Watch issuance is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows a few attempts at sustained convective initiation across central to western TX along a diffuse surface trough/confluence zone to the east of a weak surface low over the Trans Pecos region. Additional cumulus development is noted along a cold front pushing southward through southern OK and northwest TX. More robust/sustained convection appears likely within the next 1-2 hours across both of these regions as diurnal heating and weak mesoscale ascent further erode lingering inhibition and surface-based parcels approach their convective temperatures (generally in the mid 90s). To the west, persistent cloud cover over NM has limited daytime heating to some degree, but filtered insolation will continue to destabilize a reasonably moist air mass (surface dewpoints are about the 75th percentile for early June across southeastern NM). A few early updrafts are noted in far southeast NM with additional/more numerous thunderstorm development within the upslope flow regime anticipated a little later this afternoon, most likely during the 21-23 UTC period based off recent high-res guidance. Both regions are characterized by moderate to strong SBCAPE (2000-4000 J/kg), weak deep-layer wind shear (based on recent VWP observations), and deep, well-mixed boundary layers. Consequently, the expectation is for initially discrete to semi-discrete cells to pose an early severe hail risk before quickly becoming outflow dominant with additional redevelopment along outflow boundaries. One or more somewhat organized clusters may emerge and pose a more focused severe wind threat if consolidated cold pools can become established; however, this appears to be a low-predictability scenario given the potential for scattered thunderstorms over a broad region. Given the poor kinematic environment and low-confidence in where more focused severe wind corridors will emerge, watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Moore/Gleason.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 30830296 31320355 32240440 32810454 33600445 34080412 34500353 34860272 34840175 34529952 34719800 34999684 34969630 34519614 33989640 33569682 33059803 32769861 32149893 31429869 30729871 30309892 30109932 30049994 30010059 30130135 30830296 |
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