Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1204

   Mesoscale Discussion 1204
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0321 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

   Areas affected...Western Nevada and portions of far northeast
   California

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 192021Z - 192245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for strong to severe downburst winds will
   increase through early evening across far northeast California and
   into western Nevada. Watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Cumulus has slowly been deepening along the Sierra
   Nevada per GOES imagery as early-day clouds clear and diurnal
   heating/upslope flow gradually increases. Based on regional radar
   imagery, several of the deeper towers are beginning to produce
   downdrafts, and occasional lightning flashes have been noted in GLM
   data over the past 20-30 minutes. These trends confirm the presence
   of very meager, but sufficient, buoyancy to support convection. GOES
   water-vapor imagery also depicts a low-level trough pivoting
   northward into NV, which will likely aid in ascent away from the
   terrain as well as provide some degree of mid-level
   cooling/destabilization - both of which will be favorable for the
   maintenance of convection through the late afternoon hours. As
   convection spreads northeast over the lower terrain, downdrafts will
   encounter a very deeply-mixed boundary layer characterized by nearly
   dry adiabatic 0-3 km lapse rates. This will promote substantial
   evaporative cooling and downdraft accelerations favorable for strong
   to severe downburst winds at the surface. Recent CAM guidance
   highlights this potential well and suggests that gusts may be as
   high as 60-70 mph. Despite the potential for severe winds, limited
   buoyancy should modulate the lifespan and intensity of convective
   cells and negate the need for a watch.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 06/19/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LKN...REV...HNX...

   LAT...LON   38021931 38882005 39382027 39702038 40092038 40512015
               40791967 41011924 41011878 40911829 40711795 40011764
               39431773 38171862 38011879 37941908 38021931 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH