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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1204

Mesoscale Discussion 1204
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1204
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024

   Areas affected...a small portion of eastern Colorado and western

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398...

   Valid 082038Z - 082245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398

   SUMMARY...A significant severe wind swath possibly beginning around
   2230 UTC and spreading east-southeast through 01 UTC into far
   western KS is forecast.  Peak gusts within the evolving severe
   linear cluster of storms are expected to range from 75-90 mph.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis indicates a moist axis
   extending westward from western KS into eastern CO near the I-70
   corridor.  Burlington, CO ASOS (KITR) shows temperatures have warmed
   into the lower 80s with a lower 60s dewpoint.  Modifying the 19 UTC
   model RAP model run valid for 20 UTC at the nearest forecast
   sounding location (Goodland, KS) for the Burlington, CO observed
   surface conditions, yields around 3000 J/kg SBCAPE.  Furthermore,
   the wind profile shows an elongated but "m-shaped" hodograph which
   will favor precipitation seeding with initially cellular storms
   currently located north through southwest of the Limon, CO vicinity
   as of 2030 UTC.  As this storm activity moves into a slightly more
   moist airmass and cold pool development matures, expecting an
   evolution into a more linear storm mode and increasing severe-gust
   potential.  Several recent time-lagged HRRR model runs support the
   notion of this corridor being the most favorable for severe gusts. 
   Steep lapse rates and evaporatively cooled downdrafts, coupled with
   more than adequate mid-level westerly flow, will support severe
   gusts potentially peaking in the 75-90 mph range during the
   2230-0100 UTC period.

   ..Smith.. 06/08/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39520126 39190111 38820119 38510143 38410182 38850306
               39070310 39380299 39710271 39810227 39520126 

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