Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1201

   Mesoscale Discussion 1201
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1251 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast WY...southern NE Panhandle...CO Front
   Range and eastern plains...southwest NE...northwest KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 081751Z - 081945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from west
   of Cheyenne, WY to the I-70 foothills vicinity west of Denver during
   the 18-19 UTC (12-1 pm MDT) period.  The risk for mainly large hail 
   will be the most prominent severe hazard as the activity emerges
   from the higher terrain into the High Plains.  As storms mature with
   increasing cold pool coverage and additional storm mergers occur,
   the threat for severe gusts will quickly increase and become the
   more widespread hazard as the storms move well east of Denver into
   eastern CO and eventually into northwest KS/southwest NE by early
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Midday satellite imagery shows a mid-level shortwave
   trough moving east from eastern UT into northwest CO/southern WY. 
   Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will continue to increase
   in the areas downstream over the Front Range.  Strong heating and
   orographic ascent of a seasonably moist airmass (17 UTC surface
   observations in the WY-CO I-25 corridor indicate 50s deg F
   dewpoints) will contribute to thunderstorms continuing to initiate
   during the next hour or so (between 18-19 UTC).  Forecast soundings
   show buoyancy increasing to around 1500 J/kg near I-25, with
   2000-2500 J/kg farther east near the CO/KS/NE tri-state border by
   late this afternoon.  Ample deep-layer shear due to easterly
   low-level flow veering to westerly and increasing with height will
   strongly favor storm organization.  The early convective cycle of
   the storms will likely feature a mix of supercells and multicells. 
   The hail risk will be most prominent during this period in which
   storms have not transitioned to a more outflow-generating storm
   mode.  Large to very large hail (peak diameter potentially in the 2
   to 3 inches range) will be possible with these storms.  The
   potential for severe gusts will quickly increase once cold pools
   become established and additional storm merging occurs.  A linear
   cluster evolving into a forward-propagating squall line will
   probably occur later this afternoon into the evening.  Severe gust
   intensity will correspondingly increase with potential peak wind
   speeds in eastern CO/northwestern KS in the 75-90 mph range.

   ..Smith/Gleason.. 06/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41690495 41800410 41500345 40970239 40820164 40380123
               39620114 38990127 38530203 38410279 38460401 39050499
               39460533 39930539 40660538 41290523 41690495