Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1201

   Mesoscale Discussion 1201
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0207 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

   Areas affected...Southern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191907Z - 192100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds will be possible for the next
   couple of hours as a band of thunderstorms approaches the Gulf
   Coast.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, a band of poorly organized
   convection has been drifting southward across southern AL and into
   the FL Panhandle. Surface observations have largely been reporting
   wind gusts between 20-30 mph with the passage of the line over the
   past 30 minutes. However, GOES IR imagery has shown a trend towards
   colder cloud-top temperatures associated with stronger updraft
   pulses as the line propagates south into a warming air mass where
   temperatures are warming into the upper 80s and low 90s. Deep-layer
   wind shear remains very poor across the region and will continue to
   modulate the overall severe threat; however, this trends towards
   stronger updrafts and warming low-level conditions suggests the
   potential for very isolated bursts of damaging winds (most likely
   35-55 mph) is likely increasing. Areas downstream of the convective
   bands may see sporadic damaging gusts over the next couple of hours
   as the storms continue to push southward towards the coast.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 06/19/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30238756 30438792 30858815 31168815 31488786 31558754
               31538720 31098676 30848638 30678564 30598467 30608404
               30398387 30118401 29708467 29668515 29848548 30138583
               30318646 30238756 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH