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| Mesoscale Discussion 1199 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1199 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Areas affected...Central/eastern KS...extreme southeast NE...western MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397... Valid 080314Z - 080445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397 continues. SUMMARY...Some severe-wind threat may continue into the overnight hours. WW 397 will be extended in time, with eventual downstream watch issuance possible. DISCUSSION...One long-lived storm cluster is currently moving out of south-central/southeast NE into northern KS, with another small but intense storm cluster moving eastward across central KS. The central KS cluster recently produced a 70 kt gust in Russell, and will continue to pose a threat for 65-80 mph gusts (along with isolated hail) as it moves through an environment with MLCAPE of greater than 2500 J/kg and strong effective shear. A threat for at least isolated hail and severe gusts will also accompany the northern cluster in the short term as it moves southeastward into a larger portion of northern KS. Storm evolution later tonight remains uncertain. A strong low-level jet will continue to support organized convection into the overnight hours. However, uncertainty remains regarding the potential interaction between the northern and southern cluster, and any potential for further upscale growth with time. With some severe threat likely to persist into at least the early overnight hours, WW 397 will be extended in time by 2 hours (until 1 AM CDT). Eventual downstream watch issuance remains possible, if trends support a continued organized severe risk into the overnight hours. ..Dean/Bunting.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 38619891 40289873 40349671 39959492 38979412 37469411 37529822 38229869 38619891 |
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